80% of World's Population on Mobile by 2013, Says Portio

Despite turmoil in world financial markets over the last year, the $1 trillion mobile industry continues to confound expectations, with spectacular, accelerating growth. So says Portio Research in its new report, ‘Worldwide Mobile Market Forecasts 2009 – 2013’, which reveals that over half the world now uses a mobile phone and predicts that 80% of the world’s population – equating to 5.8 billion people - will be doing so by the end of 2013. The report provides an analysis of worldwide mobile markets, as well as growth forecasts, and network operator and handset vendor market shares.
Among the top 20 growth markets ranking list for 2007-2013 there are few surprises, the report says. China wins the top spot, just ahead of India. These two countries are expected to contribute over 1 billion additional subscribers during this time. Brazil comes in a distant third with 132 million additional subscribers over the same period. Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, are also expected to experience high growth, estimated at 13.3%, 10.7% and 9.9% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), respectively. Meanwhile, despite rising worldwide mobile voice and data revenues, mobile ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) continues to decline, and is predicted to fall from $23.20 in 2005 to $15.80 by the end of 2013, largely because additional subscriber growth is likely to come from low per capita income markets.
The report also offers a breakdown of mobile handset market share, with Nokia still in top spot, having shipped over 437 million handsets during 2007, while Samsung has displaced Motorola from the number 2 spot. In the first two quarters of 2008, LG displaced Sony Ericsson from the number 4 spot.
The report provides an overview of the world’s major regions, plus detailed analysis of 73 individual country markets. Each country section includes a mobile market overview, with discussions on subscriber growth and penetration.
“In 2006, we predicted that over half the world would be using a mobile phone by 2009, thought by many to be wishful thinking at the time,” says Portio Research Business Development Manager, John White. “Despite this, the mobile industry achieved this milestone early in 2008 and continues to be a beacon of good news amid the daily gloom and doom of the last year. This report suggests that this will continue."
The report costs £1,495 for a 1-5 user team licence, £2,595 for a small or medium-size company PDF licence, or £3,595 for a large, corporate PDF licence. There’s more information here.